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Will the GPS System Fail?
( break out the sextant! )

Reading the information on the internet about the possible failure of the GPS navigation system as we know it can generate serious paranoia in the average sailboat skipper. From start to finish the news is not good.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) started the scare back in May 2009 when they tabled a report to the National Security and Foreign Affairs Sub-committee that there was a distinct possibility that the GPS system would fail anytime, starting in 2010.

They actually didn’t say “fail”. They said that the possibility was the system would not perform to its specification. It’s more likely that the system will become more and more unreliable as the years go by.

The problem is old satellites. Some of the existing GPS satellites are past their design life by 1000%, that is they are into their 11th life and could fail at any time.

You can read the full 15 page GAO report HERE

There was a launch of a new GPS II satellite on August 17 2009, but it has problems and may not ever go into service. The launch of the second new GPS II satellite was due in February 2010 but this has been delayed and no firm launch date has been made.

The US Air Force is responsible for the GPS satellite system and although they agreed that there was a small possibility of a degrading of the system, they were confident they could keep a viable GPS system available worldwide.

And naturally, the GPS manufacturers dismissed the idea that there would ever be any problems.

Here's a graph produced by the GAO showing their assessment of the probability of fewer tan 24 satellites being in orbit over the next few years. This graph assumes that the GPS III satellites are launched on time.

The launch of the first of the new GPS III satellites is scheduled for 2014 and the USAF is saying that this launch will be on time. But as the GAO document states, no new series of satellites has ever launched on time and has usually averaged 2 years late.

It’s all very depressing reading.

The only bright light on the horizon is that the US military and some very powerful commercial interests are highly dependent on the GPS system – and Uncle Sam may decide that the system is “too big to fail” and throws more billions at the problem on top of the $5.8 billion already committed.

However, $$billions may not be the answer though if the technical problems with the new GPS III satellites are obstinate.

The rest of the world is not standing still on this. The European Union has their Galileo system, Peoples Republic of China has COMPASS, India has QZSS and GLONASS is a proposed Russia – India partnership.

None of these systems has the coverage of GPS yet, but it’s early days.

After the disastrous story about GPS failure in last weeks TOW, this is further food for serious thought by us all.

What do you think? Jump over to the FORUM now and have your say.